What could life after the Assad regime look like for Syria? - The Front Page

A demonstrator holds a Syrian opposition flag as members of the Syrian community chant slogans in Syntagma square in Athens, Greece, to celebrate the end of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad after rebel fighters took control of the Syrian capital Damascus. Photo / AFP

After decades of authoritarian rule, and 13 years of civil war, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen.

After rebels rapidly closed in on the capital of Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled the country and reportedly are now in Moscow.

It has cleared the way for leading rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to take control of the country, although there are also other rebel factions.

University of Otago international relations professor Robert Patman told The Front Page that the Syrian civil war began 13 years ago.

“In 2011, the Assad regime came very close to being toppled ... There were a lot of peaceful protests against the Assad dictatorship in Syria and the regime responded by shooting dead the peaceful protesters, and also seeking and getting help from Iran and Russia,” he said.

Patman said there is joy across the political divide in Syria as a result of Assad’s decline.

“The Assad family has been in power for 54 years and one of the first things the rebels did was release all political prisoners.

“To give you an example of the sort of repression that went on in Syria ... Bashar al-Assad’s father [Hafez] imprisoned someone for 43 years simply because that individual won an equestrian competition against one of his sons,” he said.

Throughout Syria’s civil war, Russia has been one of Assad’s most loyal foreign backers, sending Russian troops to support his forces and jets to bomb his enemies.

He and his family have been granted political asylum, an official source in Russia told CNN.

Patman said one of the main reasons the rebels were successful was because Assad’s two biggest supporters, Iran and Russia, are currently distracted.

“Iran’s ability to support the Assad regime has been weakened by the fact that its proxy [militia], Hezbollah, has received substantial collateral damage, so to speak, in its conflict with Israel.

“In addition, Russia, which played a key role in Assad winning Aleppo in 2016 through airstrikes, finds itself bogged down and ensnared in a very debilitating conflict in Ukraine and therefore was not in a position like 2016 where it could respond rapidly to support an ally like Assad.

“Putin having put Russian troops into Syria and having lost troops in Syria, having spent a lot of money there, he wouldn’t want to be seen to be rubbishing or disowning his own policy. So, he’s granted asylum to the Assad regime and Assad’s family.

“I’m sure this won’t be a rent-free situation. I’m sure the riches of the Assad family will be used to facilitate that stay. But, I think Putin probably decided on balance it was politically safer for him to at least be seen to be standing by the Assad family,” he said.

Global powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation.

HTS is considered a terrorist organisation by many nations but there are also many welcoming the end of the Assad dictatorship, including the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, who called it a “historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future”.

“The international community must give the rebels a chance ... The Western world should welcome what seems to be the moderation of the rebels and give them a chance to establish a post-Assad democratic Syria,” Patman said.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about how the Syrian conflict escalated and what could be next for the nation.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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